What we are reading
Making sense of Trump’s trade chaos
Published 11 February 2025
Trump’s latest tariff threats are raising concerns about long-term global economic stability. It remains unclear whether these tariffs are bargaining tactics or the beginning of a broad US war against the entire global trading system. Meanwhile, China’s DeepSeek AI has shaken the tech industry by achieving a major milestone with significantly lower investment and fewer semiconductors, challenging assumptions about innovation and US tech dominance. Check out what we’ve been reading.
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The tariff man's brinkmanship | DeepSeek reveals itself | More research from Hinrich Foundation
The tariff man’s brinkmanship
- Imposing Duties to Address the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China – Executive Order, The White House, February 1, 2025
Trump’s Executive Order imposing 10 percent tariffs on China. - Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China – Executive Order, The White House, February 5, 2025
Trump amends his Executive Order, pausing suspension of de minimis treatment for China until Customs can efficiently screen and apply duties to small packages. - HF sponsored accessTrump to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports – Financial Times, February 9, 2025
Trump said he would impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, expanding his trade conflicts to the metals sector in a new burst of protectionism from Washington. - Trump pauses de minimis repeal as packages pile up at US customs – Reuters, February 8, 2025
Reuters reports that over 1 billion small value packages with Chinese goods arrive annually in the US. - China Swiftly Responds to Trump’s Tariffs With a Range of Measures – The New York Times, February 4, 2025
The New York Times details China’s retaliation to Trump’s tariffs. - Beijing Prepares Its Opening Bid to Talk Trade With Trump – Lingling Wei, The Wall Street Journal, February 3, 2025
The WSJ finds that Beijing is preparing an opening offer for possible trade negotiations with Trump. - Hong Kong Gets Swept Up in Trump’s Trade War With China – Alan Wong and Rebecca Choong Wilkins, Bloomberg, February 7, 2025
Bloomberg writes that Washington views China and Hong Kong as indistinguishable, including on trade. - Canada Follows Mexico in Reaching Deal to Delay U.S. Tariffs – The New York Times, February 4, 2025
The New York Times provides a blow-by-blow account of the past week’s brinksmanship over mooted US tariffs on Canada and Mexico. - What Just Happened: New Tariffs on Products from Mexico, Canada, and China – Kathleen Claussen, Just Security, February 5, 2025
Claussen explains what happened with Canada, Mexico, and China, and the likely impact on American importers. - Colombia Agrees to Accept Deportation Flights After Trump Threatens Tariffs – The New York Times, January 26, 2025
The New York Times reports that Trump threatened tariffs as high as 50% in response to a refusal to accept military flights of deported Colombian migrants. - Hail Colombia! – William Reinsch, Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 3, 2025
Reinsch details what this incident teaches us about Trump’s trade policy. - ‘Reciprocal’ tariffs on every country to be announced next week, Trump says – Victoria Guida and Doug Palmer, Politico, February 7, 2025
Politico reports on Trump’s statement that reciprocal tariffs are coming this week. - Trump Has the Whole Global Trade System in His Sights – Bob Davis, Foreign Policy, February 6, 2025
Davis describes how Trump wants to remake global trade based on reciprocity. - It’s not over: Donald Trump could still blow up global trade – The Economist, February 6, 2025
The Economist says that Trump is just getting started with tariffs. - Tariff uncertainty can be as ruinous as tariffs themselves – The Economist, February 6, 2025
The Economist opines that the madman theory transfers badly to economics.
DeepSeek reveals itself
- DeepSeek’s Latest Breakthrough Is Redefining AI Race – Yasir Atalan, Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 3, 2025
Atalan notes that DeepSeek’s real breakthrough is in efficiency. - Will DeepSeek Upend US Tech Dominance? – Angela Zhang, Project Syndicate, February 5, 2025
Zhang writes that export controls may be spurring innovations allowing China to challenge US oligopolies. - Non-Western founders say DeepSeek is proof that innovation need not cost billions of dollars – Ananya Bhattacharya, Rest of World, January 30, 2025
Rest of World reports on the view from Asia and Africa that innovation and frugality can go hand in hand. - Four Chinese AI startups to watch beyond DeepSeek – Caiwen Chen, MIT Technology Review, February 4, 2025
The MIT Technology Review identifies the ones to watch.
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