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Trump's trade order

Published 28 January 2025

On Day One, Trump published an executive order calling for a sweeping review of US trade policy. Expect an early renegotiation of the USMCA and a new trade battle with China. Meanwhile, countries should work together to prevent another "China Shock," but Beijing's ability to sustain the success of its industrial policy could be more perception than reality, reports say. See what we’ve been reading.

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America's First | Trade agreements under review | Reconsidering industrial policy and subsidies | More research from Hinrich Foundation

America's First

  1. America First Trade Policy – The White House, January 20, 2025
    The Trump Administration publishes an executive order calling for a sweeping review of US trade policy. 

  2. HF sponsored accessFive takeaways on Donald Trump’s opening trade salvo – Andy Bounds, Aime Williams, and Alan Smith, Financial Times, January 22, 2025
    The FT pulls out the five key messages from Trump’s executive order on trade. 

  3. How to Read Trump’s Day-One Trade Actions – Keith Johnson, Foreign Policy, January 21, 2025
    Johnson sees the executive order on trade as laying the groundwork for tariffs and other actions Trump promised on the campaign trail. 

  4. Tariffs past, present and future. With Doug Irwin – Alan Beattie, Financial Times: The Economics Show Podcast, January 20, 2025
    Doug Irwin explains the history of US tariff use, and where Trump may rate among his historical peers.

  5. Trade protectionism masquerading as currency policy is harmful – Mark Sobel, Financial Times Op-Ed, November 15, 2024
    Sobel considers the use of CVDs to address currency undervaluation. 

  6. Who’s Afraid of America First? – Bilahari Kausikan, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025
    Kausikan argues that US allies and partners can learn from the experience of Asian countries accustomed to transactional US foreign policy. 

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Trade agreements under review

  1. Trump Pushes for Early Renegotiation of U.S. Trade Deal With Mexico, Canada – Brian Schwartz, Gavin Bade, and Nipal Monga, The Wall Street Journal, January 21, 2025
    The WSJ reports that Trump hopes to renegotiate USMCA before the 2026 review process. 

  2. Trump has an advantage in upcoming USMCA trade talks. Here’s how his team can use it – Sophia Busch, Atlantic Council, January 16, 2025
    Busch advises that the US has strong leverage in negotiations even without Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico. 

  3. It’s Time for a U.S.-India Trade Deal – Kenneth I. Juster and Mark Linscott, Foreign Policy, January 16, 2025
    Juster and Linscott see reasons to be optimistic for a US-India trade agreement. 

  4. How Trump Could Strike a Trade Deal With China – Wendy Cutler, Foreign Policy, January 8, 2025
    Cutler spells out what a Phase Two agreement with China should cover and consider. 

  5. China’s Year of Record Trade – Noah Berman, The Wire China, January 19, 2025
    Berman analyzes the implications of China’s nearly $1 trillion annual trade surplus.  

  6. EU and Mexico revamp trade deal before tariff man Trump takes office – Koen Verhels, Politico, January 17, 2025
    A new deal between the EU and Mexico provides each economy with options in advance of Trump’s likely disruption of trade flows.

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Reconsidering industrial policy and subsidies

  1. Wins and Losses: Chinese Industrial Policy’s Uneven Success – Ilaria Mazzocco and Ryan Featherston, Big Data China (CSIS), November 19, 2024
    CSIS researchers examine whether China’s industrial policy success is more perception than reality. 

  2. Trade Implications of China's Subsidies – Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta, International Monetary Fund, August 23, 2024
    IMF research finds that China’s subsidies promoted Chinese exports and limited imports. 

  3. Stopping the Next China Shock – Aaron L. Friedberg, Foreign Affairs, August 20, 2024
    Friedberg argues for a trade defense coalition to counter China’s growing manufacturing dominance. 

  4. How Trump Can Rebuild America – Oren Cass, Foreign Affairs, January 16, 2025
    Cass considers how industrial policies can play a role in Trump’s efforts to reindustrialize America. 

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