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What the US political rollercoaster means for trade

Published 30 July 2024

The past month has seen dramatic shifts in the state of the US presidential race. What could a second Trump presidency mean for trade and investment, and where does the presumptive Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, stand on trade policy? How do North American trading partners better coordinate among themselves amid rising Sino-US tensions? As China’s long awaited Third Plenum drew to a close, why did Xi Jinping double down on his existing economic agenda? Check out what we’ve been reading.

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Where is US trade policy heading? | A long awaited Third Plenum in China | The US and Mexico close loopholes | Access to critical raw materials | More research from Hinrich Foundation

Where is US trade policy heading?

Alan Beattie in the Financial Times calls Biden a protectionist president who’s been good for trade.  Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld of the Peterson Institute for International Economics ask can Trump replace income taxes with tariffs? The White House weighs in on the issue of tariffs as a major revenue source. The Economist claims that a second Trump term would not be as bad as most expect.  Foreign Policy describes the Kamala Harris doctrine.

Mentioned publications 

  1. The protectionist president who’s been good for trade — for now – Alan Beattie, Financial Times, July 22, 2024
    What impact has Biden had on trade? 
  2. Can Trump replace income taxes with tariffs? – Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld, Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 20, 2024
    Is this problematic policy proposal at all realistic? 
  3. Tariffs as a Major Revenue Source: Implications for Distribution and Growth – The White House, July 12, 2024
    The White House makes an extraordinary rebuttal to a Presidential candidate’s proposal.
  4. Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect – The Economist, July 11, 2024
    Trump would have to overcome many obstacles to achieve his most outrageous economic policy proposals.
  5. The Kamala Harris Doctrine – Foreign Policy, July 26, 2024
    What do we know about Kamala Harris’s policy positions on trade and international economics?  

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A long awaited Third Plenum in China

The Chinese Communist Party held its long awaited Third Plenum of the 20th Party Congress. CSIS analysts provide their hot takes. Neil Thomas of the Asia Society Policy Institute asks why Xi Jinping stuck to his guns at the Third Plenum. Manoj Kewalramani in Tracking People’s Daily gives a breakdown of the Third Plenum decision and Xi Jinping’s explanation of it. Huang Yiping and Tu Xinquan of the Center for China and Globalization decode the Third Plenum. 

Mentioned publications 

  1. Third Plenum Hot Takes: Skepticism and Concern – Jude Blanchette, Scott Kennedy, Ilaria Mazzocco, Lily McElwee, Claire Reade, Daniel H. Rosen, and Logan Wright, Center for Strategic and International Studies, July 22, 2024
    CSIS reviews the CCP’s Third Plenum outcomes and finds them wanting.
  2. Why Did Xi Jinping Stick to His Guns at China’s Third Plenum? – Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute, July 25, 2024
    General Secretary Xi doubles down on his existing economic agenda in the Third Plenum.
  3. Breakdown of the Third Plenum Decision & Xi's Explanation – Manoj Kewalramani, Tracking People’s Daily, July 22, 2024
    A translation and explanation of the key documents coming out of the CCP’s Third Plenum.
  4. Transcript: Huang Yiping & Tu Xinquan decode Third Plenum – Center for China and Globalization, July 26, 2024
    An interpretation of the Third Plenum outcomes from Beijing insiders. 

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The US and Mexico close loopholes

The US imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Mexico originating in China, reports the Wall Street Journal. Mexico is not a backdoor for Chinese carmakers to enter the US, opines Tom Miller in the Wire China. Joshua Meltzer of Brookings calls for the US, Canada, and Mexico to coordinate their approaches toward China. 

Mentioned publications 

  1. Biden Prods Mexico to Better Police Evasion of Tariffs – Bob Tita, The Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2024
    The US will impose a 25% tariff on Mexican imports containing steel from China.
  2. Mexico Is No Backdoor For Chinese Carmakers – Tom Miller, The Wire China, June 23, 2024
    Miller asserts that there is little chance of Mexico becoming a conduit for Chinese cars to the US market.
  3. The US, Canada, and Mexico need a more coordinated approach to their trade relationships with China – Joshua Meltzer, Brookings, June 7, 2024
    Competition with China calls for better coordination among North American trading partners.  

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Access to critical raw materials

Developing countries can translate critical raw materials trade into development benefits, advocates the World Economic Forum. The Economist asks why China is building secret commodity stockpiles.

Mentioned publications 

  1. Translating Critical Raw Material Trade into Development Benefits – World Economic Forum, May 24, 2024
    How can trade in critical raw materials advance economic development in economies rich in critical materials? 
  2. Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles? – The Economist, July 23, 2024
    China is preparing for more geopolitical turmoil to come by stockpiling critical resources. 

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