US-China trade
For, by, and from the Party: Defining the parameters of Dual Circulation
Published 14 September 2021
China's Dual Circulation Strategy (DCS) does not necessarily mean the country is lurching to autarky. Instead, China is likely to move towards import substitution wherever possible in the pursuit of economic resilience. Such a move will come at a cost, and its ramifications for the global economy, the domestic private sector, and foreign companies in China could prove very far-reaching.
When the phrase “Dual Circulation Strategy” (DCS) entered the lexicon of China’s economic policy in May 2020 following the meeting of the Politburo standing committee, it was not clear what the strategy might entail. Consequently, substantive commentary about the potential impact of DCS on China’s growth or engagement with the outside world has been scarce.
A plethora of more recent policy announcements provide the world a better idea of what the DCS might mean, putting forward some fundamental questions: What is Dual Circulation Strategy? What are its objectives? What are the ramifications of its implementation for China and the rest of the world?
This paper by Hinrich Foundation Research Fellow Stewart Paterson attempts to answer these questions by placing the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) economic planning and policymaking process in the context of the country’s overall political and economic structure. The analysis briefly looked at China's previous policy drives and slogans, and their impact on the direction of development. Finally, it examines the different directions DCS could take, as well as its likely impact on the country's growth and its economic and political system.
Download For, by, and from the Party: Defining the parameters of Dual Circulation by Stewart Paterson:
Download the other papers in this Dual Circulation Strategy series by Research Fellow Stewart Paterson:
© The Hinrich Foundation. See our website Terms and conditions for our copyright and reprint policy. All statements of fact and the views, conclusions and recommendations expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author(s).
Stewart Paterson is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation who spent 25 years in capital markets as an equity researcher, strategist and fund manager, working for Credit Suisse, CLSA and most recently, as a Partner and Portfolio Manager of Tiburon Partners LLP.
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